You read the sales page for the latest Horse Racing System that is convincing. You check out their two years worth of results that are spectacular. You plunk down your hard earned money and wait anxiously for the system to arrive in your email. Once you have the system you log on to your favourite betting exchange and start to place your bets. You then watch your bank start to dwindle.

Sad isn’t it?

So what causes this sudden departure from historical results?

The answer is very simple, the unscrupulous seller has preformed magic with those statistics.

Here is how it works. The seller has analyzed horse racing statistics going back two years. They find a pattern that is profitable but nothing to write home about. They then start to filter those results down. Their initial analysis may yield them five picks a day. They filter those results down to just two picks a day by removing losing bets. The idea is that they start to analyze losing picks to see if they can adjust their criteria and produce a more profitable horse racing system.

The reality is that producing systems this way has nothing to do with future results. This is different from analyzing the form based on sound criteria to pick your horses. Even if the seller started with sound criteria do you believe that they would not be tempted to then filter those past results to make them look better?

Once the seller has a system that looks good on paper they will then contact their affiliates who will write positive reviews based on a short period of time actually testing the system. Those reviews will rely heavily on those positive past results.

How can you tell if a horse racing system has been over filtered?

First, do the criteria seem reasonable. For example, if a horse racing system tells you to only bet certain races where the price is between 3.7 and 7.6 you can bet that they have filtered down their past results. Technically value prices change throughout the period of time before the race starts. A price of 6.5 may be a value bet four hours before the off but racing conditions change. Just before the off that 6.5 may no longer be a value bet.

Second, are these sellers pumping out new horse racing systems every six months. If they are then their business is producing systems, not betting the horses. It is more profitable for them to sell you a system rather than bet it themselves. A Horse Racing Tipster never gives out his system, he protects it, and he bets it himself.

So what is the moral of this story?

Stick with horse racing tipsters who have to bring you profitable results in real time.

Steve Connelly
The Betfair Bandit

So why do Horse Racing Systems always seem to fail for you?

First, let’s consider the difference between a Horse Racing System and a Horse Racing Tipster.

Tipsters will either sell or give away free tips on specific races. You have no idea how they determine their picks and you do not care, as long as they are profitable.

A System is something you buy, typically in downloadable PDF form, that tells you the criteria on how to pick a particular horse to either win or lose in a particular race. So the big difference is that a Tipster will do all of the work for you. This involves reading the form and applying the criteria to pick the horse. Many prefer a Tipster over a System because it involves less work, i.e. not having to read the racing form.

But there is a more subtle difference, and it has to do with control. A tipster controls his system and makes money selling his tips on a subscription basis. Therefore he has a vested interest in not over selling his tips and ensuring they are profitable. Someone selling a system only makes money selling the system and once sold no longer has control over the criteria used.

How does this cause the system to fail?

First, the system will be oversold and too many punters will be using it, not to mention that punters tend to share with their friends. When too many people bet a horse to win it will shorten in price and vice versa for laying a horse, the price will drift.

This shortening or drifting in price can cause a winning system to suddenly be a loser. For example your laying system is achieving a 90% strike rate, that is 9 out of 10 races you win when the horse loses. You will be profitable if the horses that win, and thus you lose, are obtained at less than 9 to 1. If too many punters are all trying to lay a horse that normally would be trading at 8 to 1 the price may drift to 11 to 1. Now you have a losing system.

Do you think someone selling you a betting system will truly limit how many are sold? I don’t because I have visited sites months after their sales page warned of limited copies and they are still selling to the public.

There is another important reason why Horse Racing Systems fail however I will save that for a future article.

Steve Connelly
The Betfair Bandit